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About Me Member Nature Photographer AWesternGraySquirrel16/Male/United States Recent Activity Deviant for 1 Year
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2008 Election Projections

Mon Sep 1, 2008, 2:26 PM
  • Mood: Content
  • Listening to: Agathodaimon- Serpents Embrace
This will be a another big victory for the Democrats, it seems. Not to the same degree, but a good year nonetheless. Or a bad year for the Republicans, depending on your political preferences.
I'm kind of a political junkie, I know, it's weird, but I get really fascinated by politics, have been that way for years. And yes, I'm only sixteen XD.

So anyway, I won't make any projection on the Presidential race, aside from simply assigning several states into each column, and then naming states that may go either way. These states will be the ones to watch-

New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, Alaska, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Montana, both Dakotas, Michigan, North Carolina, New Jersey, Minnesota, Missouri, and Arizona. Maybe even Georgia. The rest of them are mostly locked up.

In the House, I project a moderate Democratic gain. Just a few seats, overall. The Republicans may take 1-3, and the Democrats will nab around 10-8.

On the Senate front, however, we are looking at a GOP disaster, likely worse than 2006. The thing is, the Democrats actually got very lucky in 2006- they won several very close races, and they had to defend as many seats as they were attacking. It was quite a marvel that they got 6 seats and didn't lose one.
This time, however, things look much brighter for Senate Democrats, for them to win 6 seats this time around is a solid prediction, not a long shot the way it was last time.

Republicans have just one shot at a pickup this year, compared to around 6 possibilities in 2006, and that is Louisiana. Moderate Democrat Landrieu has low approval ratings and this is one of the few states trending red, but she is still leading her challenger solidly, and I predict that the GOP has only a 20 percent chance of taking it.

Now, for the Democrats, there is as much as a dozen states that may go Democratic. I will rank them, by there likelihood of changing parties.

Virginia- This open seat looks like a Democratic landslide in the making. Certain win for Warner.

New Hampshire- John Sununu is finished, Jeanne Shaheen consistently leads him, in all polls, by about ten points.

Alaska- Mark Begich (D) regularly leads Ted Stevens by wider margins than Shaheen does Sununu in New Hampshire, but this somehow feels like more of a long shot.

New Mexico- Solid Democratic lead that doesn't appear to be changing enough for Steve Pearce. Should go Dem.

Colorado- Democratic lead here is consistently shorter than in New Mexico, but it is still just as consistent. You can't find polls showing Schaffer ahead. Likely Democratic pickup.

North Carolina- A statistical tie, most polls show them in a dead heat.

Minnesota- Al Franken is consistently behind Coleman, but just barely, within the margin of error for polls, so this is also a dead heat, maybe leaning a bit towards the Republicans.

Mississippi- This one is getting closer, poll averages show Musgrove around 5 points behind the GOP candidate for this open seat.

Oregon- I don't buy that this one is one of the most vulnerable GOP seats, as some think, but there is definetly a chance of a Dem pickup.

Georgia- I seem to be rather alone on this, but I think the Dems could win this one. Martin is closing in on Chambliss. The GOP leadership will get surprised by this one, they continue to focus efforts on actually safer seats in places like Maine.

Maine- Speaking of Maine, the GOP is very concerned about this seat, although to me it looks like a bit of a long shot. Still, don't right it off.

Idaho- A long shot, but Obama is running closer than Democrats normally do in this ultra- Republican state, and this seat has no incumbent. LaRocco, a former Congressman, averages around ten points behind in polls.

The other seats are safe, excepting some big Blue landslide. It's notable that the presumed safe Republican seats average much closer poll leads than the safe Blue ones.

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Comments


:iconasi-military:
Thanks for the fav =)

--
Ignorance is bliss...
:iconasi-military:
thanks for the watch! =)

--
Ignorance is bliss...
:iconanathemasremedy:
You mentioned you forgot who drew the image of the Slytheirns in their common room - That'd be me ;) I'm glad you like it.

--
"I am enough of an artist to draw freely upon my imagination. Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." - Einstein
:iconawesterngraysquirrel:
Lol thats weird...why is meh comment on top of yours when its about a half a day later.

--
"If you want to be secretive don’t lie or you will make a fool of yourself. Being secretive without lies is intelligent."
- Confucius, I think
:iconsetsui-osawa:
OH MY GOD
BD You're such a babe.

--
Hey Free Bird, show us your boobs.
:iconawesterngraysquirrel:
Thanks I guess

--
"If you want to be secretive don’t lie or you will make a fool of yourself. Being secretive without lies is intelligent."
- Confucius, I think
:iconxrobotxrockx:
CHRISTIAN =D
Hey d00d!

--
You believe in authority.
I believe in myself.
:iconawesterngraysquirrel:
I figured I might as well start a DevianArt, seems like everyone at A + T has one. Sup Alex. I found Audrey, Austin, Kelsey, Daniel, Zach P and about a dozen others so far but does Patrick have a DA? I can't find him.

--
"If you want to be secretive don’t lie or you will make a fool of yourself. Being secretive without lies is intelligent."
- Confucius, I think
:iconawesterngraysquirrel:
Aha. So thats it.
Meh. Stuck here at my house for a week with my three gangster poser sisters and there damn friends. Parents are at work most of the day so noone to control them. Im just kind of shut up in my room. Guitar Hero gets mighty boring after a while, I may never play it again. Mostly doing homework, listening to Smashing Pumpkins videos on Youtube, studying for my driving test, mowing lawns, making food, surfing the Internet, and hanging out here on DA.

--
"If you want to be secretive don’t lie or you will make a fool of yourself. Being secretive without lies is intelligent."
- Confucius, I think
:iconxrobotxrockx:
Yeah pretty much everyone has one.
Not much man.

How are you?

Yeah Patrick is genericcrap.

--
You believe in authority.
I believe in myself.

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